The world's factory has been shuttered, supply chains have been broken, flights have been grounded and tourism decimated. That's the real-world consequence of the coronavirus and the epidemic has yet to peak outside of China. Growth could halve this year to 1.5 percent, the OECD warned in its worst-case scenario for the outbreak, a growth rate generally considered to indicate a recession. As markets crashed, central banks stepped forward to say they were ready to support growth. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, its first emergency cut since the financial crisis in 2008. Whether central banks have the firepower after more than 700 interest rate cuts and trillions in bond-buying after the financial crisis is another question. And after all that, it was the stock markets that benefitted the most from rate cuts with little trickling down into the real economy. 　 Unlike the 2008 crisis, where banks needed a desperate infusion of cash after they lost a bet on subprime mortgages, this time, they need governments to step forward to stimulate the economy. Governments may need to find money to bail out airlines; the industry stands to lose $113 billion in revenue. The World Bank has pledged $12bn and the IMF has set aside $50bn, pledging to help poor countries where health systems are weakest, including providing emergency funding. Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, says he thinks the "chances are very high that we are indeed heading for a global recession". Rajiv Biswaz, executive director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at IHS Markit, adds that a scenario in which the world experiences a recession really depends on how much coronavirus spreads globally. "Clearly now we have very substantial escalation in South Korea, Iran and also Italy. So it is certainly a growing risk that we could see this escalating into a pandemic that affects the whole world economy and that could destroy global consumption, and in that kind of scenario, there is certainly a risk that it could evolve into a global recession," Biswaz said. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

Counting the Cost

Who will save the world from a coronavirus recession? | Counting the Cost

It was a bruising year for China. A trade war with the United States left its economy expanding at the slowest pace in 30 years. And economists estimate 4 million jobs may have been lost in 2019. This year is already being defined by the outbreak of the coronavirus which has killed thousands and has infected thousands more, putting the brakes on China's economy. Economists polled by Reuters expect China's growth rate to slump to 4.5 percent in the first quarter of this year from 6 percent in the previous quarter. That would be the slowest pace since the financial crisis. With much of the country in lockdown, the virus could affect up to 42 percent of China's economy, according to Standard Chartered. Companies may struggle to make payments on loans leading to a rise in what is called non-performing loans of $1.1 trillion, according to Standard and Poor's. Chinese airlines have been forced to ground planes and are expected to lose $12.8bn in revenue. Globally, the airline industry is set to lose $29bn, according to the International Air Transportation Association (IATA). And the effect of COVID-19 is being felt regionally. "Well, as you know, from 15 to 20 years ago China was already dubbed as 'the factory of the world' so then what we have seen now is that the supply chain sourcing has been interrupted," Reuben Mondejar, professor for Asian Initiatives at the IESE Business School, University of Navarra, tells Al Jazeera. Argentina needs help to avoid death default, again Argentina's economy is expected to contract for the third consecutive year. Inflation is running at more than 50 percent and the country is in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avoid a default on its debt. Since the late 1950s, the IMF has provided loans and bailouts to Argentina more than 20 times. But this time it has finally admitted what everyone else was saying - that Argentina's debt is "unsustainable". The country has debts of more than $320bn. The IMF now says they will have to take losses on their holdings. And there seems to be a determination in Buenos Aires that they will not accept any new austerity measures. In fact, the new President Alberto Fernandez has instead frozen prices and increased salaries. Richard Segal, a senior analyst with Manulife Asset Management, explains that the situation in Argentina has been stressed for many years. "The IMF is acknowledging what we have understood for a long time, meaning that the public debt is unsustainable and it needs to be written down quite substantially," Segal notes. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

How the coronavirus outbreak is affecting the global economy | Counting the Cost

Despite vowing to stop propping up strongmen in Africa, France is backing a Libyan warlord and Chad's dictator. Many welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron’s promise in 2017 to end what was known as “Francafrique”, or France’s sphere of influence over its former colonies in Africa. But many say France is still up to its old games. In Libya, Macron has thrown his lot behind the renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, secretly supplying arms and training despite the UN and Libya’s former colonial power, Italy, backing the government in Tripoli. Forces loyal to Haftar have blockaded oil ports and have stopped pipelines, strangling the economy of much-needed funds. And while fighting so-called "Islamist" militants, France deployed warplanes to attack a rebel convoy in northern Chad, helping to keep President Idriss Deby in power. Deby has faced several coup attempts since gaining power in 1990. But is it all about the oil? “Really what Macron has presented is the case for a changed relationship with Africa, not so much a reducing or a retreat from the continent, but much more for putting the relationship on to a new footing,” Paul Melly, consulting fellow at Chatham House, tells Al Jazeera. “And you can see that most strongly in the relationship with the West African countries, and particularly the very troubled Sahel region on the margins of the Sahara where Macron has argued the case for much more of a partnership approach but also economic reforms.” Melly adds that France has “long-standing traditional economic and security interests” in a range of countries, from Chad right down through Central Africa, that do not have a good governance record. Brexit: What does it mean for the UK economy? “Get Brexit done” – that was the slogan that won the 2019 election for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Britain left the European Union this year but the kind of relationship the country has with the rest of Europe has yet to be decided and the process is unlikely to start until March. The economic cost of Brexit hit $170 billion, according to Bloomberg Economics, and that number could rise by another $100 billion by the end of 2020. Counting the Cost examines what Brexit means for one of the worst-performing industrial economies. Hamish Muress, a senior currency strategist at OFX, tells Al Jazeera: “For our clients, the big questions will be around what happens to the pound and what happens to the euro over the next 12 months.” Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, says the EU is the UK's largest trading partner, and when the UK was a member of the European Union it enjoyed a free trade agreement. He adds: “So whatever the agreement is with the European Union, at the end of this year it will not be as free as it once was in terms of frictionless trade …” - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

France in Africa: Is it all about the oil? | Counting the Cost

Unmanned ariel vehicles (UAVs), or drones, have come a long way since their introduction in the first Gulf War in 1991. At the time, they were used just for surveillance and intelligence gathering. A decade later, a Predator drone fitted with a missile was used by the CIA in an attempt to kill Taliban leader Mullah Omar. And almost 10 years on from that failed attempt, the assassination of Iran's Qassem Soleimani became the first time a senior military figure has been killed on foreign soil. Drones mean troops do not have to deploy into hostile territory, therefore saving lives. Still, there have been many civilian casualties. Under former President Barack Obama, the number of drone attacks rose to 563 from 57 under George W Bush. More than 800 innocent civilians were killed in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. The drone business is a growing industry. According to defence analysts Teal Group, spending on research, development and procurement is expected to rise to $14.3bn by 2029, up nearly 30 percent from $11.1bn this year. The United States is by far the biggest spender on drones. In its 2018 budget, almost $7bn was set aside for research and development and buying drones. Despite the US high spending on drone technology, much less expensive technology has been used to great effect. The US and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for an attack on Aramco oilfields that wiped out half the country's oil production. China makes a rival to the MQ9 Reaper for the export market, and it is said to cost half the price of the US system. The aircraft has been used by the Iraqi military in attacks on the ISIL (ISIS) group. And Turkey has become the first to attach a machinegun to drone to protect military convoys. And that is not all, they have been flying autonomous drones that can find, track and kill. But it is not just nations like Israel, Iran and Pakistan that have used drones to target people. Non-state actors ISIL and PKK have used drones in attacks too, drones you can buy from Amazon. Justin Bronk, a research fellow for Airpower and Technology at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), tells Al Jazeera that the use of remotely piloted drones is an extremely efficient way to provide surveillance and attack options over long periods of time in permissive airspaces. "The basic technology behind creating something that flies as a remotely flown drone with weapons capability is not particularly challenging so we're seeing China is, in fact, one of the biggest exporters now of armed drones," Bronk explains. Has Putin been good for Russia's economy? Russian President Vladimir Putin crushed the hopes of potential acolytes with plans to rewrite the constitution to beef up the power of parliament. After 20 years in power, Putin's proposed constitutional changes would enable him to grab power after he steps down. With the constitutional reform, Putin could extend his ability to rule indefinitely. But what of his economic record? Has he delivered for the Russian people? Charles Robertson, the global chief economist at Russian bank Renaissance Capital, says Putin did an "incredible job" in the first decade or so, helped by rising oil prices. "When he inherited power, Russia was the size of Belgium, as an economy, and very rapidly, it became the size of the Netherlands and then became even bigger as a top 10 economy now with low inflation, and decent enough growth but people often forget about Russian demographics and forget to strip out the population growth numbers," Robertson says. He adds: "Actually it's doing not that differently from China on a per capita basis for GDP at the moment, or India for that matter." Economic cost of coronavirus The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China continues to rise. Beijing has extended the Lunar New Year holiday and businesses shut down to curb the spread of the virus. A total of 18 cities in central Hubei province now have some sort of travel restrictions affecting 56 million people and authorities are rushing to build a hospital to accommodate 1,000 beds to treat victims. Now the virus has spread beyond neighbouring countries to Australia, Canada, France and the US. And just when the Chinese authorities hoped the economy would begin to pick up after signing a phase one trade deal with the US, it is already having to count the cost of yet another outbreak after the SARS crisis. Patrick Perret-Green, head of global macroeconomic strategy at AdMacro, explains: "We're only just beginning to appreciate the wider effects. We're talking about unprecedented action. Major cities being shut down, business enterprises being closed until at least February 9." He later adds: "Chinese tourism is another area where we are going t- Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

How drones have come to dominate the battlefield | Counting the Cost

"This is coal! Don't be afraid, don't be scared." When a prime minister takes a lump of coal into his own parliament as a peculiar form of show-and-tell, you can be sure of a couple of things. One: that coal means a lot to the country's fortunes, and two: there is going to be some controversy about it. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been a vocal supporter of the coal industry which has been partly responsible for helping Australia's economy avoid a recession for the last 30 years. But then he also went on holiday while his nation burned, in some of the worst bushfires ever seen. Now scientists are saying climate change has helped create conditions for the rapid spread of Australia's wildfires. And environmental activists are warning that Australia must curtail its carbon-producing industries such as coal. In 2018, the value of Australian coal exports was $46bn, equivalent to 3.5 percent of nominal gross domestic product or GDP, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The coal industry directly employs a quarter of a million people and many more through support services and related businesses. But Morrison says Australia is only responsible for 1.3 percent of global emissions. However, when you take into account its export of petroleum and coal and its population of approximately 24 million people that means we have a country with 0.3 percent of the world's population, responsible for 5 percent of global carbon emissions, according to Bloomberg. And then there is the cost: More than 500 Australians die each year from heat stress alone, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The institute also says that the financial cost of climate change is expected to rise to $26.7bn every year by 2050 - which is as much as it spends on defence currently. With a debt-to-gross GDP ratio of just 40 percent, Australia has the power to transform its economy away from fossil fuels, if it wants to. Tom Swann, a senior researcher at The Australia Institute, tells Al Jazeera that there has been a big shift in the rhetoric and some of the political positions taken by Australia's commonwealth government over the last month but there has not been any change in policy. "In fact, rather than taking stronger action to reduce emissions and calling for global leadership this government has, in fact, shifted towards saying things like climate action includes hazard-reduction burning, reducing the amount of fuel loads to try and make bushfires less common, less severe." Swanson points out: "Unfortunately it's actually climate change that is making this hazard-reduction burning more hazardous and more dangerous in Australia. That has really become a bit of a distraction from what has to be the main game: reducing emissions." Julien Vincent, Executive Director of Market Forces says most people are deeply concerned about the effects of climate change, especially after the latest season of the bushfires outbreak. But he points out that many people are perhaps "less aware" of how their personal investments may be helping to fuel the problem. "What we do is help shift the behaviour of financial institutions by giving that sense of power to the people they are ultimately accountable to." Is Lebanon ready for an IMF bailout? Protests in Lebanon have been going on for months. At times, they have been violent, driven by the failing economy and general disdain for the government. Now Lebanon may be forced to seek help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the political and economic crisis escalates. It may also need to reconsider its 23-year-old currency peg to the dollar as its debt becomes unmanageable. Lebanon's debt to GDP ratio is 150 percent - the third-highest in the world. Now it has to repay $1.2bn in debt due in March. There was a plan to swap those, giving it more time to repay the debt, but it has been pulled after the credit rating agencies said Lebanon would be in "selective default". In total, it needs to repay or issue more debt to cover a $2.5bn Eurobond this year. Jad Chaaban, associate professor of economics at the American University of Beirut, said the devaluation of Lebanon's local currency has driven up the prices of many goods. "It is very difficult for us to enter into any international loan or international bailout because of the very harsh conditions that are usually imposed with such loans such as raising indirect taxes, cutting pensions, and laying off people from the public sector. This, unfortunately, cannot be done now." Chaaban adds: "The Lebanese population cannot bear any increase in the prices, in the taxes. People are on the brink of massive poverty so we cannot come now and cut their pensions and apply austerity measures that are u - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

Can Australia give up its addiction to coal? | Counting the Cost

The assassination of Iran's second-most powerful figure, Qassem Soleimani by a US drone strike has led to the deployment of more troops to Iraq. And while Iran hit back and tensions appeared to ease, a US-Iran shadow war goes on. Counting the Cost takes a look at the trillions spent on wars and the billions spent on maintaining US military bases. There are 200,000 US troops stationed at hundreds of bases in countries and territories outside of the US. Despite President Donald Trump's promises to remove US troops from the Middle East, the number of troops in the region has increased. Since 9/11, American taxpayers have spent $6.4 trillion on wars and military action in the Middle East and Asia, according to the Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs at Brown University. And according to US central command, there are between 60,000 and 70,000 US troops in the Middle East. Glenn Carle, former CIA deputy national intelligence officer and assistant professor at Boston College, explains that some host countries pay substantial amounts to maintain a US military presence while other countries do not necessarily make the same kinds of formal contributions. "In Iraq, I'm not so clear that they are actually making a formal contribution to hosting us as much as they are happy to have us, I'm sure. So there will be ancillary or secondary indirect costs that the host country is paying certainly. But I don't think that they are paying some sort of a fee to host 6,000 American soldiers now in several bases," Carle says. On how the latest US-Iran tensions may play out, Carle notes that the US political system is largely paralysed so that any "coherent, decisive action" in international relations is difficult to carry out. "There has been strong inclination on the part of half the country to remove the American presence from Iraq, which is viewed as a disaster, and yet most professional national security officials or individuals think that it is necessary for the US to have some sort of a presence there, which is independent of whether we are the ones who broke the crockery or try to put it together, but that to leave now would be a problem," says Carle. "So I don't see us leaving anytime soon, unless the incoherent and capricious man in the Oval Office actually manages to act upon his compulsions." Does the meat industry need to change to save the planet? The hog and pork industry has taken a hit from African swine flu in China and Asia and the whole question of how we get our protein fix has gained prominence against the background of climate change. Animal agriculture is responsible for about 9 percent of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions globally. Justin Sherrard, global strategist for Rabobank, tells Al Jazeera that meat is a dietary staple for most people around the world, as much as staples such as rice or bread. He notes that the debate around the meat industry is not really about whether people are addicted to meat consumption. "What it is about is how we are going to change the emission signature associated with meat production and consumption in the future," Sherrard says. "And on a positive side, we are starting to see commitments being made by the larger leading animal protein companies in Europe and in the US about reducing the greenhouse gas emissions associated with their whole supply chain." Will France's digital tax on Silicon Valley escalate trade war with US? Silicon Valley's tech giants have often been criticised for not paying fair taxes. Much of the problem exists because of international laws that allow corporations to pay their taxes in the country of their choosing. But France is leading a group of nations in imposing a tax on the revenues of Google, Facebook and Amazon, and that has threatened to escalate a trade war. The US has proposed tariffs on $2.4bn of French goods but the French have warned the EU will retaliate. Italy, Austria, and Turkey have also imposed levies and the UK will likely follow, despite expressing interest in signing a trade deal post-Brexit with Washington. Julian David, CEO of TechUK, explains that taxation is "still stuck in an old model" and it does not apply just to tech giants but any company using digital technology. "The problem here is that the taxation system isn't fit for the new world that we live in," David says. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

Counting the cost of US military bases around the world | Counting the Cost

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) new managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has described the global outlook as 'precarious'. The global economy is growing at its slowest pace since the 2008 financial crisis, and trade tensions could cut global economic growth by $700billion - which is roughly the size of the Swiss economy. Central bankers have been pretty clear that any slowdown this year would require governments to step in with stimulus packages, because monetary policy is at the limits of what could be achieved. But there are many variables, challenges and geopolitical events that will affect the world of business and economics in 2020: The US election, a lack of leadership as the US steps back on the world stage, climate change, and protests from Chile to Lebanon. Will President Donald Trump win another term? And what does that mean for trade wars and disputes? Can the world come together to tackle global warming and globalisation? And will we see more people on the streets to protest austerity and the fact that wealth is unequally spread across society? We've got a panel of experts to cast an eye on the year ahead and to give us some insights into what to expect in 2020: Akber Khan - senior director, Al Rayan Investment Charles Hecker - senior partner, Control Risks Jairo Lugo-Ocando - Northwestern University in Qatar - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

What to expect for the global economy in 2020 | Counting the Cost

In this episode of Counting the Cost, we look back at the year 2019: people from Latin America to the Middle East took to the street to protest the unequal spread of wealth and demand that governments end austerity; a trade war between the United States and China has put the breaks on global growth and is reshaping globalisation. But the biggest story of the year 2019 has to be climate change and the lack of will to do anything about it. Climate crisis: With the exception of the European Union, there is very little effort to reduce emissions. The cost of our inaction has been put at $2bn a day. The United Nations says that $48 trillion needs to be spent by 2050 to avoid catastrophe to humanity; that means putting survival before short term profits. Teresa Bo reports from Brazil on the threat of deforestation, the Amazon crisis and President Jair Bolsonaro's environmental policies. Raheela Mahomed reports from East Kalimantan, Indonesia, on the environmental cost of moving the capital from sinking Jakarta to Borneo. Lucia Newman reports from Santiago on the continuing protests in Chile and how the economic and social crisis has spiralled into a political one. US-China trade war: The idea of globalisation has come under attack - from President Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India", while the trade war between the US and China has taken a few points off global growth. The biggest losers have been exporting nations like Germany and Japan. Scott Heidler looks at some of the benefits from Bangkok. And Tanvir Chowdhury reports from Tongi, Bangladesh on the rise of steel prices thanks to the US trade war. Africa Continental Free Trade Area: In May 2019, a new economic bloc was born: 54 nations came together to form the Africa Continental Free Trade Area. The aim of the bloc is to increase trade between nations by tearing down trade barriers - in the hope of becoming the next European Union. Ahmed Idriss reports from the Nigeria-Benin border. Healthcare in the US: Who should be responsible for providing healthcare? The state or for-profit organisations? Shihab Rattansi reports from the US on how the health insurance industry is failing patients. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

How 2019 events shaped the world of business and economics | Counting the Cost

A rebellion against inequality, austerity and the politics of "more of the same" is growing in Latin America and is springing from what looks like the most innocuous changes. It is not dissimilar to uprisings elsewhere. In Chile, the rise of train fares led to street protests and calls for an end to neoliberalism. In Argentina, a sitting president was voted out of power after a protest over austerity measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a condition of a $57bn bailout. And in Ecuador, it was the IMF's involvement which forced the president and cabinet to escape the capital Quito. The size of the IMF bailout was similar to the size of unpaid corporate taxes, as highlighted by former economy minister Wilma Salgado. Ecuador requested a $4.2bn loan from the IMF and a condition of that was to cut the budget deficit. The Ecuadorian government decided to cut fuel subsidies, which were costing $1.3bn a year. But the decision led to protests, forcing the government to walk back the proposal. Still, the government pressed ahead to wipe out much of the taxes owed by Ecuadorian corporations. Otaviano Canuto, a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South who has also held roles at the IMF and the World Bank, tells Al Jazeera that the scrapping of fuel subsidies had differentiated impacts on the social structure in Ecuador. "Cutting the fuel subsidies, paradoxically, while in some other countries it might benefit particularly the poor, because as long as it is accompanied by compensatory social policies, the fact is that the major beneficiaries very often are the middle classes who use cars, who benefit from the oil subsidies and so on," Canuto says. "But in the case of Ecuador, apparently the burden is split between the fractions of the population. I know for one that the preference of the IMF, for instance, was on adjusting value-added taxes, not attacking the fuel subsidies." Has Shinzo Abe's economic policy helped Japan recover from its lost decades? On November 20, Shinzo Abe served his 2,887th day in office, making him the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history. But Abe's first term lasted only a year. He quit amid accusations that he violated electoral laws. And there were five other prime ministers between his first and second terms, all of which only lasted about a year each. At the start of his second term in 2012, Abe's namesake economic policy grabbed the attention of economists and policymakers. Japan's economy was struggling with deflation and slowing growth after a stock market and property crash in the 1990s. And Abe promised to combat the slow growth with a three-pronged economic plan, known as "Abenomics". The plan involved the Bank of Japan using its powers to buy government bonds and stocks. The second step of the plan was to increase infrastructure spending and the third was to make structural changes to the world's fourth-largest economy. For the most part, economists have said the policy has been a failure. But questions have also been raised about his over-friendly relationship with US President Donald Trump, who finally delivered a trade deal that avoided a protracted trade war. Takuji Okubo, managing director of Japan Macro Advisors, notes that Abe has implemented several important economic policies but has also benefitted from a bit of luck. "He has been lucky in the sense that the global economy has not had a major recession in the past 10 years so that has been a very favourable environment for Japan's economy to prosper." - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

How unpaid corporate taxes led to violent protests in Ecuador | Counting the Cost

Increasingly, nations are deploying private security contractors to troubled and remote parts of the world. Beyond the scope of democratic accountability, opaque and operating beyond and around international law - they are proving to be useful agents of diplomacy and proxy wars. But there have been well-publicised failures. In 2007, Blackwater contractors killed 17 unarmed Iraqis and injured 24 others. Blackwater went on to change its name to Academi and continues to provide services to the Pentagon around the world. Also in Iraq, the Pentagon hired CACI Premier Technology to run the infamous Abu Ghraib prison. The logistics company is alleged to have told military police to soften up prisoners for interrogation. And it is estimated the US government lost as much as $60bn to fraud by contractors in the early years of the Iraq conflict. Right now, the industry is estimated to be worth up to $249bn. More nations are deploying mercenaries to reshape battlefields. Russia has used the Wagner Group in Ukraine, Libya and Syria. And as Nicholas Haque reports exclusively from the Central African Republic, Russia is training government forces at the request of the president. "The danger of using mercenaries or contractors is that they can get in scraps or fights that can suck others into a larger conflict," said Dr Sean McFate, professor at Georgetown University and author of The New Rules of War. "Mercenaries' accountability and safety have been a problem from the start. Mercenaries are the second-oldest profession. So how do you control mercenaries? According to McFate, "We don't have a good international framework to deal with modern mercenaries. The international law is very thin and the will to enforce it is very small ... So mercenaries are expanding in the 21st century, yet we don't have any sort of legal framework or norms to competently deal with this problem." Is Saudi Aramco relevant in a green economy? In the end, it wasn't the blockbuster it was made out to be. Saudi state-owned oil giant Aramco is not worth $2 trillion, and there is plenty of blame to spread around for such misplaced exuberance. The guarantee of $75bn in dividends every year for the next five years was not enough to attract international investors. They could not stomach Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious valuation. But it was a price put together by investment bankers desperate to cash in on the biggest initial public offering of the year. So now the plan is only to sell shares to Saudi nationals and investors from the Gulf region. The value could be as high as $1.7 trillion. But as Aramco becomes a public company its promise to deliver a massive dividend may put it at odds with OPEC, which is trying to boost the price of crude. "It's always difficult to estimate the reaction of the market, and what the Saudis found is that the initial estimate that was announced by the Crown Prince now four years ago, has not been validated by the market," said Professor Giacomo Luciani from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, where he runs the Executive Master in Oil and Gas Leadership. "It's something that can be managed, but certainly the investors know that the company is not a pure profit maximiser." Can Google's Stadia crack the video gaming industry? Alphabet, better known the world over as Google, is using its cloud-computing might to muscle in on the lucrative video games industry, which has been long dominated by Microsoft's Xbox, Sony's PlayStation and Nintendo. The entertainment industry is worth $135bn, and by 2025 it could be worth $300bn. Google's Stadia platform will be streamed from the cloud and does away with expensive consoles. And Apple will introduce its Arcade service. Two of the existing giants of the industry are not taking the challenge lightly: Microsoft and Sony surprised many with a partnership to developing their own cloud solution. It is estimated that more than 2.5 billion people play computer games every year, and eSports enjoy an audience of 458 million a year. "It's a huge industry and when you look at the types of platforms, you've got a huge mobile gaming sector, you've got a huge console gaming sector, the PC sector ... there's so much space in that industry for smaller players to actually co-exist and to a certain extent we are always competing against any other gamers out there, but there is going to be a huge audience and people want to play different styles of games. So we don't necessarily have to compete with the big boys," said Omar Khan, managing director of No Code Studios. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

How mercenaries are reshaping the battlefield | Counting the Cost

Is this a backlash against trade or just another economic war? The world's biggest trade pact was just moments from being signed when India pulled out. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the deal would hurt its farmers, businesses, workers and consumers. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would have brought together the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Despite what seems to be a backlash against globalisation and the 16-month trade war between the United States and China, the remaining nations plan to push ahead with an agreement - leaving a door open for India. Globalisation has limits, as India bolted at the prospect at the gradual elimination of tariffs which would have opened up the floodgates for cheap Chinese goods plus agricultural produce from Australia and New Zealand. Simon MacAdam, a global economist at Capital Economics, and author of the report: Does Globalisation Have a Future? tells Al Jazeera that it is important to bear in mind that on many metrics the world may have already reached "peaked globalisation". "This isn't a new thing. It hasn't just come about because Donald Trump entered the White House and launched into a trade war against China and it hasn't just come about because of the collapsing of various trade deals in recent years." He adds: "This is something that has been going on for about a decade now. Trade flows are a percentage of the world economy, are the same now pretty much as they were around the time of the financial crisis and that's symptomatic of several factors. It's not just about economic nationalism and politicians increasingly looking inwards. It's also to do with the lasting overhanging effects of the financial crisis, it's to do with changes in technology." How is France becoming more unequal? Emmanuel Macron's decision to cut taxes for the wealthy earned him the moniker "president for the rich" and his decision to raise taxes on diesel and petrol led to the popular yellow jacket protests, which later morphed into revolt against inequality. Just how unequal is French society? Earlier this year, Bernard Arnault briefly overtook Bill Gates to become the second-richest man in the world. The centibillionaire plans to take over the jeweller Tiffany for more than $14bn. The personal fortunes of French billionaires has grown twice as fast as their US and Chinese counterparts in 2019, according to Bloomberg. Jacques Reland of The Global Policy Institute explains that it is more difficult than before for the poor in France to exit poverty because the problem is not just about wages, it is about access to education and jobs. "In France, people tend to quickly demonstrate ... maybe that's why France has still ... one of the best redistribution and social welfare systems in the OECD," Reland says noting that the demonstrations have played an important role in creating awareness about issues of inequality in France. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

India, RCEP and the future of economic globalisation | Counting the Cost

Chile's neoliberal doctrine may have ended up undermining its democracy over the past four decades. The country has been hit by protests for weeks. It all began with Chilean students protesting against a recent hike in train fares, but the demonstrations have mushroomed into a movement against inequality and unrest over an economy that is on the slide after years of doing comparatively well against its neighbours. "There has been a pervasive sense of discontent [in Chile] that has manifested itself from time to time in demonstrations and protests over the last dozen years or so, and on this occasion it exploded into something much bigger. There is serious arson and damage to the metro system, firstly, and then there are big peaceful protests about many issues facing Chile," Michael Reid, senior editor for The Economist, tells Al Jazeera. Under the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, Chile became a testbed for unfettered free market economics also known today as neoliberalism. The experiment in the 1970s was continued by democratic governments from 1990 to the present day. While under Pinochet, neoliberal policies largely failed, Chile's economy performed better than the economies of other Latin American countries. Reid says that Chile's economy has grown faster than average for the last three decades and there has been a sharp decrease in poverty levels, but rampant inequality led to a divide between the business and political elite and the people of Chile. "In general there is a sense of unease in the world at the direction that capitalism has taken since the financial crisis and that has a lot to do with technological change, the digital revolution and the rise of China and the concentration within business, within markets, and the sense that capitalism is less inclusive and less democratic than it was," Reid says. "Where Chile needs to look more carefully is that it did adopt a model under which market mechanisms were going to be the main source of social provisions, of education, healthcare, pensions and people would have to pay a lot of the costs of those themselves. I think that hasn't worked so well. It has been gradually and incrementally changed over the last 20 to 25 years, I think it needs more change, with more public provision, and that means a tax system that does tax the better off more than they have been taxed in Chile so far." The rise of phantom investments A corporate tax dodge called "phantom investments" is gaining ground and is depriving the developing world of much-needed money. Forty trillion dollars in foreign direct investment (FDI) is being channelled around the world as phantom investments to minimise tax costs. In 2015, the UN calculated that developing countries lost $100bn every year because multinational companies shift their profits to countries where they pay little or no tax. This money could provide safe drinking water or sanitary facilities for two billion people every year. Petr Jansky of Charles University tells Al Jazeera that FDI by multinational companies has been increasing over time and is as large as half of the world's total GDP. "We know that it is large but we also know that much of it is not driven by real investment, but by tax avoidance by these multinational corporations," Jansky explains. "I'm also careful to use the word tax avoidance by multinational corporations. So tax avoidance implies that it is not necessarily illegal; tax evasion is the other term which would imply that it is illegal. What is clear is that this has a harmful effect on other taxpayers in other countries." - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

Counting the cost of neoliberalism in Chile | Counting the Cost

The United States leads the way as the world moves towards spending $10 trillion a year on healthcare by 2022. The US spends more than any other nation on health expenditures. But more than half a million people turn to bankruptcy in the US because they are unable to afford their medical bills. And more than 27 million people are without medical insurance. But, according to Andrew Farlow from the University of Oxford the best in the US is actually "the best of the best globally". "If you need top-quality treatment of some sort or other, it can often be found in the US. But, one of the things to take out of this story, is actually that for relatively lower levels of money you can actually achieve pretty high success," Farlow says. "So one of the problems with highlighting the huge amounts of expenditure in the US is, it kind of sends a signal that you need to spend lots and lots and as you know there are big pushes to create universal healthcare coverage, basic package, and you can actually achieve a lot with a lot less in the US." In the poorest nations, the weakest don't have access to even rudimentary treatments. Yet, it is a goal of the United Nations to "achieve universal healthcare for all" by the year 2030. The outcome of this goal could mean the aversion of nearly 100 million premature deaths, as well as 20 million deaths from non-communicable diseases like heart disease, diabetes and cancer. Other outcomes could be the increase of life expectancy rates anywhere between 3.1 and 8.4 years. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that it would cost about $58 per person, per year to achieve universal healthcare in all low and middle-income countries. Approximately 85 percent of the total cost can be met by domestic resources, according to WHO. And in the poorest nations, a funding gap of more than $50bn would need to be filled through international aid. "A large chunk of the initiative to create these programmes for universal healthcare coverage is to make it that people, in advance, in many cases, contribute. So there are schemes in which even very poor people put something every now and then and that gives them some sort of automatic right to some sort of access," Farlow explains. "So it's not just rich people paying money, it is richer countries paying towards the very poorest for a period of time." How technology can help achieve universal healthcare With the trillions spent on healthcare, it should come as no surprise that investors are trying to crack the industry with new tech-related products. The global digital healthcare market is expected to hit $504bn by 2025, according to global market insights. Juniper Research estimates the health tech wearable market, which includes smart watch trackers, could be worth $60bn by 2023. George Davies, partner at the venture firm Hambro Perks, points out that change and innovation within the global healthcare system does take time but there have been advancements within the industry. "I definitely think that over the long term we will see absolute transformation particularly as you see large business like Google and Apple entering the space as well as new start-ups and more established players who are now spending more and more time thinking about changes to the system," says Davies. Ada Health is a Berlin-based company that is developing a healthcare app aimed to reach parts of the world where the healthcare system feels like a lottery and there is a shortage of doctors. "Ada works .... very much like a WhatsApp chat with a trusted family doctor that you have access to 24/7 except that in this case the family doctor is not a human but it is artificial intelligence that supports you in finding out what is wrong with you and what you should be doing next," Daniel Nathrath, CEO of Ada Health, tells Counting the Cost. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

Can the world afford universal healthcare? | Counting the Cost

US President Donald Trump called the US-China trade war truce a "substantial phase one" agreement. But any talk of a truce in the trade war is wide of the mark. Washington has not removed any tariffs and got a little relief in the form of an aid package for its farmers. Beijing got crucial access to pork after its pig farmers were decimated by swine flu. The ongoing trade tensions have led to an economic war in all but name. Washington slammed 28 Chinese tech companies with sanctions for their part in the repression of Uighur Muslims. Now, Beijing is targeting foreign companies and using access to the Chinese market through systems like corporate social credit as a weapon against those who criticise its policies. The NBA was the latest to step into the Chinese quagmire after China took offence to a team executive's tweet in support of the Hong Kong protesters. Simon Chadwick, professor of sport enterprise at the University of Salford, tells Al Jazeera he was surprised by the incident given the NBA's investment and efforts to boost the sport of basketball in China. "The NBA for the best part of two decades now, has not only invested a lot of money but has also invested a lot of their time into their activities in China and this has really helped to not only boost the NBA in China itself, but also to boost basketball more generally," he says. Trump's tanker sanctions hit rental prices A few years back you could rent an oil tanker for less than the price of hiring a Ferrari. But now, the cost of shipping crude around the world has shot up to 11-year highs after the United States blacklisted Chinese ships. More than 40 Very Large Crude Carriers, or LCCs, operated by China's Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation have been blacklisted for moving sanctioned Iranian oil. Cosco has a total of 1,100 ships. Iran's oil tankers - of which there are estimated to be about 54 - have also been sanctioned. In total, nearly 300 tankers have been blacklisted, including Venezuelan ships. That represents about three percent of the world's oil tanker fleet, according to Refinitiv Eikon. This has sent the cost of hiring a ship from $18,000 to almost $300,000 a day. Rajat Kapoor, managing director of oil and gas at AWR Lloyd, explains that a big effect of tanker prices and where they are today has got to do with the current sanctions the US administration has put on Iranian crude oil. "The US as you know, last month, imposed sanctions on tanker subsidiaries of Cosco, which is China's shipping line and which is the largest shipping line in the world. Once you have the sanctions coming in the US on these entities, on these tankers, they suddenly become hotcakes. Nobody wants to touch these tankers. These volumes are then taken off of international trade," Kapoor says. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

China silences critics by denying access to its economy | Counting the Cost

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an ambitious target for India. He hopes by 2025, the economy will double in size to $5 trillion - making India the fourth-largest economy behind the US, China and Japan. Right now, Modi could miss that target, just like his promise to create 10 million jobs a year during his first term. To become a $5 trillion economy India would need to sustain a growth rate of 8 percent and more for a couple of years. Very few nations have managed to sustain that level of growth; China, South Korea and Japan are exceptions. India's gross domestic product (GDP) sank to just 5 percent in the April to June quarter, but the government maintains the economy will expand by 7 percent this year. Independent economists disagree, with some of them saying that India is in recession. Unemployment is at a 45-year high of 6.1 percent, and almost 300,000 people in India's auto sector alone have lost their jobs in recent months. If growth does not improve, hopes of creating jobs for the one million young people who join the workforce every month will be dashed. To reduce income inequality and reduce poverty, India has a fair way to go. Just to underscore the challenge India is facing despite being the seventh biggest economy: its income per capita is about $2,000 a year. In comparison, China's per capita income is $9,800. So how serious is India's economic slowdown? Can Modi deliver on his promise of a $5-trillion economy or is the country headed towards recession? "I don't think we are there yet," says Miguel Chanco, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Certainly some industries are feeling recession-like conditions ... but if you look at other major parts of the economy for example the IT and BPO service export industries, they are doing well ... So, yes, five percent growth is the lowest in over five years, but at the same time that's still pretty respectable given the current global economic environment." How will Brexit affect Ireland's economy? Ireland is the only European Union country to share a land border with the United Kingdom. The deadlock over the Irish border has held up a Brexit deal between Brussels and London. A hard Brexit would be detrimental to Ireland's farmers who export most of their produce. And as the capital makes preparations for Brexit, the influx of big businesses and property developers are pushing out Dubliners. Al Jazeera's Laurence Lee takes a look at Brexit's effect on urban and rural areas. Economists reckon that Ireland's economy could suffer a hit of somewhere between 4-7 percent in a decade's time thanks to Brexit. "It's a very serious situation ... we have to be realistic about the possibility - if not the probability - of a hard Brexit ... No part of the economy is immune to it because of the sheer extent of the relationships between Ireland and the UK," says John McGrane, director-general of the British Irish Chamber of Commerce. "The reality is that a hard Brexit on October 31 would have an effect within days on the two-way trade in goods and some services between the two Irelands." - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: https://www.aljazeera.com/

Can Modi deliver on his promise to create a $5-trillion economy? | Counting the Cost (Full)

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